An erudite look at the near complete failure of predicting the future. The book examines the psychology of those attempting it and the rest who readily lap it up though the rate of accuracy by those consistently making the predictions is laughable. Specifically the pundits trotted out by news and other talking heads on TV, radio and written commentary. An excellent book that should be read by all.
I wanted to read this book, but the print is so small that I had to give up.
Guess I will have to wait for the large print version to come out.
I have read lots of "non-large" print, as well as large print, books, but this one was impossible.
A follow-up to his book on the psychology of risk, Dan Gardner tackles a related subject: predicting the future (after all, risk management is about deciding what to do when you're not sure how the future will turn out). It turns out that most so-called experts are only right about future developments in their fields about half the time, and yet we continue to ask them for their predictions and to believe them. And the more certain they are, the less accurate and the more respected they are!
Gardner examines the psychological reasons behind this. It basically boils down to subconscious needs to remove uncertainty from our lives and assuming the future will be like the present, only more so. The writing is clear and engaging, although there is some repetition of the major points and a slightly condescending tone (both problems that I found in his previous book, as well). Still, the work is well researched and presented in a non-technical way that should be accessible to everyone. It's a good tonic for those of us hyped on predictions about peak oil, global warming, flu epidemics, and all the other things we worry about.
It is easier to predict the weather than the future. Listening to experts predicting the future is like watching comedy or reading fiction. Book reveals some of our thinking processes.
An excellent rebuttal to all those "experts" who tell us what's going to happen next.
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